National campaigns don't really take place in in crowded halls, lobbyist
lunches, debates, or even in the media. While each of these are important, they
only matter because they provide cash - or create images - that help influence
and shape what takes place on the real field of battle: the human
imagination.
This may seem painfully obvious to some, yet its implications are subtle, and
it's one reason why Barack Obama is so far behind in the polls. He is now going
to be pressed to respond by changing his strategy, which he should. But if he
changes in the wrong way the result could be fatal to his campaign.
Should he go on the offensive? Sure - but only in a manner that fits his overall
context, and only if he also finds several key issues that demonstrate he is the
candidate of the future and its promise.
Polls and other quantitative measurements have their place, but campaigns
suffer when they're emphasized at the neglect of the qualitative. Those
qualitative campaign factors resonate on a number of conscious and unconscious
levels, the way musical notes resonate with heard and unheard overtones. When
they clash they make people uncomfortable.
In other words, a campaign isn't just an input/output model in the systems
theory sense. It's also a work of art. It needs a literary or artistic
coherence just as much as it needs an analytical foundation of policies and
polling - and ideally, the two should operate in harmony.
For lack of a better term, let's go neologistic and call these overtones a
"metacampaign." Metacampaigns aren't about policy. After all, campaign
isn't just about itself anymore than a John Ford western is just about cowboys.
If a "campaign" - the overt statements and policy positions of a candidate -
conflicts with its own "metacampaign," the result is what anthropologist Gregory
Bateson called a "double bind."
When Bateson used the term "double bind" he was describing the emotional trap
family members are placed in when they're told something verbally (e.g. "I love
you no matter what you do") that is contradicted by nonverbal messages. While
this doesn't cause schizophrenia, as Bateson originally thought, it can
certainly create problems. And it can exist in larger social groupings than the
family.
While some of the reasons for Obama's current poll standings have been
identified, there's been little or no discussion of the double bind issue. His
campaign and his "metacampaign" have sometimes seemed out of sync. That's
created a cognitive dissonance that can prevent people from becoming fully
comfortable with him.
It's premature to suggest he can no longer win, as some Washington insiders
are now saying (although if he doesn't act quickly that 'conventional wisdom'
could become one more datum that gets fed into the public imagination.) But if
reports like this one are
accurate, his contributors are getting worried and are stepping up the pressure
on him. That could cause him to replace one double bind with another by going on
the offensive the way any traditional politician would.
The Obama "campaign" has made some understandable choices. Since he is
African American and relatively young, they've elected to present him as
conciliatory, as a unifier, and as a compassionate but cerebral figure. That
makes good political sense, and it appears to suit his personality. But it's
been done in a way that conflicts with his 'metacampaign,' which clearly
identifies him as a figure of dramatic if not revolutionary change. Excess of
caution, which might be seen as judicious in another candidate, reads as
something approaching insincerity in Obama's case (even though it's probably
exactly the opposite - to this outsider, it appears to reflect a genuinely
judicious and contemplative nature.)
Fortunately for Obama, recent history gives us a precedent for handling this
kind of campaign/metacampaign dissonance: Bill Clinton. If campaigns are works
of art, Obama would do well to learn from the best artist of our time. Bill
Clinton delivered the DLC message on many issues of substance, especially in his
re-election campaign, yet managed to do so in a way that didn't conflict with
his 'metacampaign' symbolism (which in many ways resembled Obama's.) He was able
to preach centrism and still excite the electorate, because he was able to
coordinate his change-oriented 'metacampaign' with his centrist speeches.
How can you talk about school uniforms and still appear dynamic? Bill found a
way, by tapping into his own empathetic streak. Because he used school uniforms
as an expression of warmth and compassion, rather than rigidity and control,
this expression of social conversatism harmonized with the "new-style politics"
image he conveyed.
Whether consciously or instinctively, President Clinton found a way to
coordinate his campaign message with his metacampaign. The eye contact, the
expressions of human concern, the lip-biting - people made fun of them, but they
worked. They created harmony between his nonverbal and verbal messages, and
brought his audience out of its double bind.
Should Obama start biting his lip? Hardly. Should he respond to falling
numbers by going on the attack against Hillary, as he has begun to do? Yes - but
carefully. He has to differentiate himself on both substance and
symbolism. He has to take on her key differentiator - 'experience,' which as
used by her campaign really means 'eight years of proximity to Presidential
power.'
That means taking on the DLC-driven politics of the 1990s head-on. That means
taking on lobbyists and consultants directly - including Blackwater lobbyists.
And that means taking on the Big Dog - that is, Bill Clinton - in the right
fashion. Obama's recent attack on "triangulation
and poll-driven politics" is precisely the kind of thing he needs to do to
gain ground. Yet Obama's kind of change should not be seen adversarial or
"political," that is, based on old conflict paradigms. In other words, while his
politics will essentially be progressive, he should be conveying this theme:
Neither left or right, but up.
So he needs to confront the triangulation issue head-on, as he's doing. And
Bill gave him a model he can now use against Hillary: When Bill thanked and
"honored" President Bush in their debate for his years of service, it was a
loving kiss of dismissal. Obama must eventually find a way to administer the
same tender farewell to the former President and First Lady, without alienating
them and their supporters, if he is to win the nomination.
But here is what's even more important than any adversarial strategy: Obama
needs to introduce some exciting, new ideas that transcend the classic
left/right paradigm. He could take on global warming as a
cause that defines our national purpose, the way that the WPA did in the
1930's and reaching the moon did in the 1960's. He could adopt a
new direction on national security that draws upon the best and not the
worst of who we are as a nation.
And there's one issue where Obama has already drawn a clear policy
distinction between himself and his rivals, including Sen. Clinton: healthcare.
Obama can use the
mandate issue, and healthcare in general, to differentiate himself as the
"opportunity candidate," a position that fits with his youthful image and
future-based orientation.
He also needs to show why he, and not Hillary, would be a better candidate
against Giuliani. And lastly, he needs to show how he can excite the Democratic
base before Chris Dodd or another dark-horse candidate takes that opportunity
from him. (Sen. Clinton can neutralize this kind of threat from Obama and others
by shifting her strategy and abandoning triangulation, which would also help
align her campaign and metacampaign - but there's no sign at this point
that she will.)
Obama needs to reframe his race with Hillary, and he needs to find those core
issues that differentiate him from all his competitors. But he needs to act
soon. Time is not on his side.