Night Light

Hit Parade of Electoral Love

Reasons not to support Saxby Chambliss, courtesy of MyDD.Com.

The more people that link to that site, the more likely it will show up in the first top ten Google searches for "saxby chambliss."  It's called google-bombing, in case you hadn't heard, and it's all the rage with the youngsters.

The Georgia runoff's critical, and it would be great to win this one.  It's an uphill fight.  Link to this site if you have a blog, click on it even if you don't.

And by all means contribute to his opponent, Jim Martin.  (Not to be confused with bluegrass legend Jimmy Martin,  who sang "Sunny Side of the Mountain" and "Hit Parade of Love.")

Thanks.

noted with sympathy

Sadly, Barack Obama's grandmother Madelyn Dunham died on the eve of this election.  His predecessors have now all passed away. 

Comparing Obama to Lincoln as a potential President would be grandiose.  We don't know enough about him as a leader, or about the election's  outcome, or about the challenges he'll face if he wins.  All these elements combine to bring out greatness in a leader, if it's there to be brought out.

No, we don't know any of these things.  But he is certainly now facing tomorrow's outcome - and whatever history will bring - without the grounding of those who brought him into this world.

Which brings to mind the closing scene in Young Mr. Lincoln.  That's the one where, his youth now ended, he climbs the hill to face an oncoming storm - a storm which he can see but the audience cannot ...

What Did You Do During the Great Election?

It was the question everybody asked back when my parents were kids: "What did you do in the Great War, Daddy?" That was before Pearl Harbor, when people thought we had fought the War to End All Wars.

Now we're fighting two wars at once, with Mommy and Daddy on the front lines. Here at home, we stand at the eve of an election whose conclusion is far from a sure thing. Ohio is tightening, Florida is close, and across the country there are electoral abuses worthy of a second-rate Third World country. Now is not the time for complacency or pessimistic speculation.

There are 24 hours left to frame an answer to this question: What did you during the Great Election? Did you vote? Was that all that you did? Or did you make phone calls? Drive people to the polls? Did you call everybody you know?

It's hard to talk about this election without sounding melodramatic. A lot is on the line. Our democracy itself needs extensive reforms - in voting, in privacy, in the restoration of habeus corpus - or it may not survive. (It's only a partial democracy today.) And the very survival of the species may depend on whether we make the right decisions in the next decade. Dramatic? Hell yes, it's dramatic.

I spend most of my workday performing pretty dry tasks in the healthcare world. I analyze data, write papers, run spreadsheets, make forecasts, help design software tools ... but for the big issues I look to the poets and mythmakers. Poets, like pundits, have been predicting an Obama victory for a while now, using the pleasing metric structure of his name as a predictor. (See this study, which I discovered through the blog of my friend Michael Lally.)

Unreliable? Or course it is. But my guess is that it's a better predictor than the voters of Dixville Notch - and the pundits use them every election season. As for the polls, they look great for Obama. Bookies, who are even more reliable than pollsters, are giving 7:1 against McCain. But should we sit back and accept a 1 in 7 chance of losing everything we hold dear, including our environment? When you consider the stakes, the odds suddenly don't seem quite good enough.

And even the bookies aren't considering the possibility the election will be stolen. Theirs is a world with smaller-scale kinds of crime. They don't think that big. So we need to build a cheat-proof margin - and then press Obama for a Justice Department investigation if he wins. The election-stealing won't end until some of these Washington insiders do some real jail time.

Sure, Obama will disappoint us at times if he's elected. If he's elected. But he's gifted and well-intentioned. He's a pragmatist, he's observant, and he's shown an ability to adapt to changing circumstances. So our first job is to get him elected. Then we need to form a movement - for economic fairness, the restoration of the Constitution, the end of war, and the healing of the Earth - and make it a movement that both supports and influences Obama. That same movement can draw energy from his election, exciting a new generation and re-energizing older ones to deeper social and political involvement.

That kind of two-way flow between a new government and a newly energized populace could make real change. Will it? We can't know the future. We can only act based on today's knowledge. What we do know is that a McCain Presidency would lead to a much greater scale of widespread human suffering. That's reason alone to go to work - and it's one reason why I don't have much patience right now for world-weary expressions of ennui and doubt. I don't disagree with the premise that things might not work out - but our job right now is to try. And to work with the tools at hand.

But we can't just ride the tide to victory. The poets of ancient Greece described the whitecaps on waves as "the manes of Poseidon's horses." It takes millions of horses, moving together, to turn the tide.

We're Poseidon's horses. It's not Obama's tide. It's ours. But it can only turn if we move together. He can only win if we work even harder over the next 24 hours. Which leads us back to the original question ...

What did you do during the Great Election?

Will the "Terror Poet" Write an Ode For McCain?

Two stories about Al Qaeda surfaced recently, but only one of them should be surprising. Nobody should be surprised to hear that some Al Qaeda supporters want McCain to win, or that they hope for a new terrorist attack that will boost his chances. The real surprise came a few weeks ago, when we learned that Bin Laden recites his poetry at "weddings, ceremonies, and ... recruitment events."

He does weddings?

While you wrap your mind around the image of Bin Laden as the entertainment at somebody's nuptials ("Hey, asshole! Sing 'Feelings'!"), consider the reasons why it might be reasonable to think that Al Qaeda might want a McCain victory on November 4:

• The Longer the War in Iraq Goes On, The Better It Is For Recruitment: The invasion and occupation of Iraq was a recruiting windfall for Al Qaeda and other terror organizations. Why wouldn't they support a candidate who says he wants to stay there for "50, 100 years"?
• Ignorance and Confusion Help Them: A President who repeatedly confuses "Shi'ite" and "Sunni" is a public insult to Arabic culture. That's a propaganda win. And a President who subscribes to the failed national security policies of the last eight years - years that have seen a drastic rise in worldwide terrorism - is a boon.
• Obama's Identity Is a Powerful Anti-Terror Tool: Leaving aside the relative merits of the two candidates and their policies, one simple fact remains. The election of an African-American named "Barack Hussein Obama" to the U.S. Presidency would be an enormous propaganda and diplomatic victory for the United States. "America is the Great Satan?" How could Al Qaeda's recruiters continue to make that case in the teeming slums of Karachi or the decimated neighborhoods of Fallujah when a black man with that name leads this country?

Nobody is suggesting that American voters should make their decision just to spite these villains. (My reasons for opposing them with all my heart and soul aren't just political, ideological, or moral, though they are that. They're also personal.)

But Americans should decide, in part based on which leader and which party will do a better job fighting terrorism and creating a more secure world. Some of us have been making this argument for some time now: The Republican record on terrorism has been one of disastrous failure - think Katrina, but worse, on issues that range from security screenings to diplomatic containment to containing loose nukes. The bumbling is epic, the results could be apocalyptic ... and John McCain's gone along for every mile of the ride.

I could have simply satirized Bin Laden's poetry, as I did with al-Zawahiri's a couple of years ago. But the stakes are too high. They could act in the next two weeks. Remember: There was a time when Bin Ladin was inundating the world with videotaped messages. (At one point he was putting out more product than Ryan Adams.) But he's been silent for a while now, which would give a new tape even greater impact.

Or, God forbid, they could even carry out another attack.  I'm sure I wasn't the only one worried about this scenario back in June. Obama's been running a pretty brilliant campaign, and presumably he has a contingency plan. But it would be wise to start addressing the terror issue immediately, by laying out the many ways GOP policies have left us vulnerable to another attack. (Al Qaeda's stronger than ever, and we haven't executed on our own plans to reduce the WMD threat.)

Democratic insiders still say that Bin Laden's videotape in 2004 cost Kerry three points, and thus the election. (Whatever your criticisms of that campaign, three points would have made the difference.) As a result of Kerry's loss, the United States failed to execute on the anti-terror strategy he articulated - a strategy of smart policing, targeted strikes, and most of all wise diplomacy.

Bin Laden may well be free today because of Republican mistakes at Tora Bora. (Kerry was also correct, as most experts now agree, when he says we "outsourced" that task.) John McCain, despite his undeserved reputation for national security expertise, has endorsed the failed policies that continue to put Americans at risk. It would be ironic, but certainly not unprecedented, if another Republican rode to victory on the fruits of his own failures.
_________________

See also: 

GOP National Security Incompetence Determined to Strike in U.S.
Before They Vote, Tell Your Friends Just How Bad Republicans Are at National Security - They'll Say "WTF!"

obama's got colin powell? mccain's got katie barberi

I've never heard of her either.  Apparently she's a soap opera star on one of those Spanish-language telenovelas.

I'll watch a few minutes of a telenovela once in a while to brush up on my Spanish.  I know how to say "How can you love him after all we been through together?" at least three different ways.

The melodramatic tone of these telenovelas means Katie should fit right in with the histrionic complaints and scare tactics of the McCain campaign.

Katie's campaigning with Joe Lieberman today.  He's an actor, too.  He got re-elected by playing the role of a Democrat.

excuse me, but didn't mccain and palin just say that the victims of 9/11 weren't 'real americans'?

Some questions about a colleague's work came up yesterday during a business call. We couldn't ask her about them, though. Why? Because she was somewhere between the 95th and 99th tower of the World Trade Center's North Tower on the morning of September 11, 2001.

Sarah Palin says that the 'real America' is in small towns and formerly red states. She says the people in the cities and in the North aren't 'pro-American.' Yet most of the people who lost their lives at the World Trade Center lived in the cities and suburbs.

Not real Americans? The firefighters who sacrificed their lives by going back into a burning building to save lives? Not real Americans? The friends and colleagues who died in pitch black crowded stairwells in some Boschean vision of hell? Or broke a window and jumped from the 101st floor rather than continue to feel their skin grow hotter and hotter?

Not real Americans? The wives and husbands who continue to grieve, the parents who lost sons and daughters, the children whose healing is yet to come?

They're saying that Northern Virginia isn't the real America, either. Joe McCain says it's "communist." Another McCain spokesperson says it's not even the real South.

Nothern Virginia.  You know - where the Pentagon is.

clinton conference call

Just participated in a 15-minute blogger conference with Hillary Clinton.  She displayed the same insight, focus, and intellect that she's been deploying to the Democratic Party's benefit throughout this general election.

It left me more convinced than ever that a different campaign strategy, and a different campaign direction, might have led to a very different outcome.  She has a different opportunity before her now:  the chance to become a major American statesman. 

Or should that be "statesperson"?  Even though she won't be President next year, she may still be the leader who forces us to all agree on a gender-neutral version of the word.  And that's a glass ceiling, too.

(My friend Melissa has more detail on the call, as does Josh at MyDD )

Is There a GOP Strategy - A Kamikaze Campaign For the Black Helicopter Crowd?

Strange. On the same day that a new poll showed McCain's negative campaign is damaging his chances, he used the final debate to go even more negative. And McCain and Palin are both going deeper into black-helicopter territory, with talk of "terrorists" and a scary organization they say is going to steal the election.

An observer could be forgiven for thinking that they're not even trying to win anymore - that they have another agenda in mind. Let's hope that interpretation's wrong. The politics of destruction has already hurt the country enough.

The television pundits initially thought McCain did well last night, but polls confirmed that most Americans knew better: The number of Americans who thought Obama won jumped to 53% in the CBS poll, up from 38% and 40% in the first two debates.

Sure, McCain was livelier , and he didn't wander aimlessly around the stage. Apparently commentators confused his improved vital signs for a more effective performance, but here's what really happened: McCain had already convinced most Americans he's not capable of fixing the economy, but last night he convinced them that ... they don't like him, either. Whaddya expect? They told him through the polls that they don't like the meanness - and in response he got meaner.

The question is: Why? Why would a faltering campaign double-up on a losing strategy? Sure, there's always the possibility that McCain can't help himself, that he's so full of anger and bitterness that he can't control himself. Or there's the possibility is that the Palinites have taken over the campaign, forcing McCain to do their bidding. ("Lassie, go tell Mom and Dad! The bad people have taken Grandpa!")

But there's a simpler explanation for all the wacky conspiracy theories and incitements to right-wing rage: This could be a long term "destabilization" strategy. They expect to lose. So they'd rather lose by an even larger margin, but in a way that encourages their base to question the legitimacy of Obama's administration. McCain's behavior actually makes sensein that light - if their goal isn't to win, but to lay the groundwork for noncooperation (if not active resistance) to the Federal government.

That's not an opposition-party strategy. It's political Posse Comitatus.

Before you decide they'd never be that extreme, remember: That's pretty much what they did during the Clinton years - with the murder theories, false conspiracy stories, and deeds like Newt Gingrich shutting down the government. It was a watered-down version of the destabilization campaigns the U.S. has used against unfriendly foreign governments for decades.

A real destabilization strategy needs people who will hold demonstrations and perform other acts of protest (which aren't always peaceful). It doesn't take very many. The women banging pots and pans in Chile were few in number, but their psychological impact was great. What was important was that they were angry.

Think about it: When given yet another chance to condemn people at Palin rallies for shouting "terrorist" and "kill him," McCain refused. He danced around the question by saying you'll "always have fringe people" who say things that "aren't appropriate." But he insisted "I'm proud of the people that come to our rallies." He didn't say "that kind of talk is out of line," and - pointedly - Sarah Palin's never said it either.

So here's the pattern: Paint Obama as an extremist, a terrorist plant. Stir up hatred. Lay the groundwork for arguing that the election was stolen, even if you're veering into conspiracy talk. You're firing up the same crowd that thinks George Bush Sr. and the Trilateral Commission created a secret world dictatorship enforced by UN agents in a fleet of black helicopters.

McCain addressed that crowd in a couple of other ways, too. He used coded language for the far right home schooling lobby, for example, when he said school choice is "the civil rights issue of the 21st Century." And then there's this unforgettable line:

That's the extreme pro-abortion position: "Health."

There are good people on both sides of the school choice and reproductive rights issues, but when you use an activist catch-phrase ("schooling as THE civil rights issue") and mock women's health, you're simply playing to the extremists in your base.

If the goal really is to stir up resistance, the anti-Clinton harrassment of the 1990's will seem tame in comparison to what's coming. But it could backfire, too. The GOP's Achilles heel (that means "weakness," Gov. Palin) is its tendency to keep using once-successful strategies long after their sell-by date. Americans could easily become infuriated if they come to believe one party is sabotaging the other at the expense of the public's well-being.

That may be why so many responsible conservatives like George F. Will (and less responsible ones, too) are condemning this campaign. Conservatism was a fringe ideology for decades, until William F. Buckley and Barry Goldwater restored its respectability. An extremist "guerrilla resistance GOP" could set the conservative cause back for decades.

Obama isn't President yet, and Democrats would be foolish to be too sanguine about the outcome. And God knows I hope this interpretation of the GOP's strategy is wrong. We need to restore a responsible public debate and put an end to the destructiveness of the last 15 years. If Obama is elected and Republicans opt for a "destabilization" strategy, everybody will lose.
_____________

(UPDATE: John Amato reports that Rush Limbaugh's becoming even loopier, talking of black people with a "30 year plan" to turn their children into militants. Rush then links this conspiracy to Rev. Wright, ACORN, and terrorism. It's all of a piece with the new trend of turning right-wing politics into a war game. It's conservatism as extremist fantasy.)

told ya so

As we were saying (and the pundits weren't), best night yet for Obama.  CBS poll of uncommitted voters:

First debate:  39% say Obama won
Second debate:  40% say Obama won
This debate: 53% say Obama won

Not a good night for McCain - or the commentariat.

first debate impressions: the pundits are wrong

We'll see what the poll numbers say, but I think the commentators are mostly wrong.  They're saying this was John McCain's strongest debate performance.  I think it was his  weakest.

If by "strongest" they meant "the one in which McCain showed the most evidence that he still has vital signs," they're right.  He was livelier.  But he was also meaner, ruder, and even more personal than before.  That means he will turn off voters even more.

Obama, on the other hand, was stronger and more confident than he had been in previous debates.  His first half hour wasn't quite as strong, but he picked up nicely.  I think it was the most clear-cut win for Obama.  He didn't do anything I thought he should do, and he was right.

But, again, we'll say what the polls say.  I thought the first two were a draw and polling shows they went decisively for Obama, especially among undecideds.  So, while my crystal ball works occasionally, it still needs an application of Windex when I least expect it. 

Overall,  I thought McCain looked like some angry old drunk trying to prove he still has it by picking a fight with a young cowboy.  But  the cowboy's  flirting  with a sweet young thing - and getting somewhere - so he couldn't be less interested.

Happens every Friday night in towns all across the USA.  Nothing to see here, folks.  Just keep moving.